First Solar Next Big thing or the party is over?

[erwinmark]

Looking at First Solar, and the solar industry in general. If you believe, the world is on the mend, solar could be a great industry in the future.

They have great balance sheet, cost seem to be going down, sales seem to be going straight up. They had a little hicup last quarter, but seems like more of a conservative accounting problem, then anything else.

I know there are a ton of competitors out there, but they have a real head start, and with 50%+ margins can make it tough on the startups.

Interesting the Walton's of Walmart control most of the stock.

Please give me some honest input here.

Thanks

 

[UltF]

I don't see solar being a viable option for the foreseeable future because it is incredibly expensive compared to coal. We had hundreds of years of coal and get incredible efficiency when we burn it. The number of solar panels it takes to power a neighborhood, much less a city, is crazy. I have a couple of solar stocks "just in case" but I just don't see it anytime soon. It is cheaper than it was, but it's not cheap.

 

[kuwlness]

Yep, what Death Eats a Cracker said I believe is the best way to look at it. Cheap is better right now and Coal is the cheap alternative to going green.

Solar is a ways off, stick with Coal and Nuclear for the next few years. Solar/Wind etc will be bigger in 3-5 years, 'til then there will be many growing pains along the way.

While I like FSLR (mostly because it's in my backyard, practically, and I've taken a tour of the facility), I just dont see solar being a viable option for some time ... and that's coming from someone that lives in a climate that sees 300+ days of sunshine every year.


Fuel cells will continue to come down in price, and the Margins in solar just arent there right now. Circle back to FSLR in 2-3 years and then it might be a good investment.

However, if you're die-hard on going solar ... check out Yingli (YGE) and/or Suntech Power Holdings (STP) as their PEs are much more attractive than FSLR's. JMO

 

[UltF]

Yep, what Death Eats a Cracker said I believe is the best way to look at it.

ROFL! That's awesome haha. It's Ultimate Frisbee but I got sick of typing in that many letters. On the solar topic, still holding a core in CSOL? I have almost 2k shares parked for a bit. (Doubled down at 0.33)

 

[kuwlness]

ROFL! That's awesome haha. It's Ultimate Frisbee but I got sick of typing in that many letters. On the solar topic, still holding a core in CSOL? I have almost 2k shares parked for a bit. (Doubled down at 0.33)

Whoops, sorry ... meant to give you Cred ... mustve been looking at a different post.

CSOL, yep ... @ around .30 you cant go wrong. Way less than book-value. Great long-termer there.

 

[erwinmark]

Thanks for input, I like to be early on these, and have done a fair amount of research on FSLR. It appears they have positioned themselves in a good spot, and are making a decent amount of money, but like you say might be a bit early for the party. I'll keep an eye, and see it they happen to go below 100 or so.